2012-12-21-173

[Rumour] Nvidia Q3 Roadmap

Nvidia is preparing a slew of GF10x series cards in Q3. With thetroubled GF100 chip holding the price points between $280 and $500,Nvidia is finally ready to strike the high volume mainstream and budgetsegments. First up is the GF104 card. While optimistically rumoured tobe "Fermi 2" by some, it looks likely to be a tweaked derivative ofGF100. It is set to take aim at the Radeon HD 5830 - which is clearlythe weakest product of the HD 5000 series. Set to release in mid-July,it will cost exactly as much as the HD 5830 - $230.

Previously rumoured to be GTX 460, it would make sense if GF104 were named GTS 460. However, it is likely that the GF104 will perform too close to the dismal GTX 465. Either way, the "460" nomenclature is very likely, the prefix is not so certain.

Following GF104, a GF106 series is set for release in mid-August in the $129-179, taking direct aim at the HD 5700 series. Considering GF104 is rumoured to be a 256SP product, it is likely GF106 would be about 128 - maybe 160. HardOCP also suggests that it will be a replacement to the GTS 250 - finally laying to rest one of the longest serving GPUs ever - the G80/G92. Unfortunately, the HD 5700 products are more cut-down GF104 territory than GF106. Of course, it is possible that GF106 will be closer specced to the GF104, which will mean GF104 would commit the same mistake as the HD 5830 - being too close in performance to the HD 5770 to justify the price. We will see how this pans out, as the $100-$200 segment is the real volume market.

Finally, the GT 240, another uninteresting product, will be replaced by GF108. This would presumably take over the sub-$100 market, competing with the HD 5500 and HD 5600 series, set for release in September.

One has to wonder if Nvidia is giving up the $50 entry level market, or if there will be a final GF10x product. With the advent of Fusion and Sandy Bridge, the entry level discrete GPU market is gradually going to erode away.

While Nvidia have been very late with GF100, it will be a formidable achievement if they can release GF104, GF106 and GF108 within the space of three months. No one trusts Nvidia with release dates any more, but it is imperative that Nvidia releases the complete Geforce 400 series as soon as possible, especially with ATI's Southern Islands looming.

It is unlikely that AMD GPG will be worried, unless GF104 indeed turns out to be a highly tweaked derivative. What we haven't seen for an eternity now, is price wars. We certainly hope that Nvidia price their cards aggressively, unlike the poorly priced GTX 465. After all, many ATI products are still selling at prices way higher than their release date MSRPs! This generation has been particularly poor for the consumer.

Reference: HardOCP